BillyBot

2026 March Madness · 15 games · drop -5% · bounce +4% · poll 10s

Max Drop 30%
Min Price 25¢
Vegas Confirm 6pts
Odds DraftKings
Download Movement Download Signals Log
🟢 A-GRADE: 40-65¢ · Bounce 8%+ · Full $20-30 · HARD CEILING 65¢
⚪ Above 65¢: C-grade watch only — no email, no trade
💰 SELL EMAIL: fires at 85¢ on open A-grade positions
⚠️ LIMIT WARN: Position below 50¢ — assess hold vs cut
Favorite Opponent Tipoff Open Current Move Open Tot Total Pregame % Lo / Hi Kalshi Now Score Change Bounce Signal
🏠 NBA-Charlotte-0410 AVERAGE 52%▲75%NBA-Pistons-0410 STRONG 87%Fri 6:00p-5.5-13.5—225.5219.564%1% / 64%FINAL—0-0 Q0 0.0
🏠 NBA-Wizards-0410 AVOID 11%▼0%NBA-Heat-0410 ELITE 66%Fri 6:00p+17.5+10.5—245.5236.57%1% / 7%FINAL—0-0 Q0 0.0
🏠 NBA-Hawks-0410 STRONG 56%▲80%NBA-Cavs-0410 STRONG 54%Fri 6:00p-7.5-4.5—233.5242.576%76% / 100%FINAL—0-0 Q0 0.0
🏠 NBA-Celtics-0410 ELITE 70%→75%NBA-Pels-0410 AVOID 15%▼0%Fri 6:30p-16.5-12.5—223.5217.593%93% / 100%FINAL—0-0 Q0 0.0
🏠 NBA-Pacers-0410 AVOID 11%▲25%NBA-Sixers-0410 ELITE 80%→75%Fri 6:30p+14.5+13.5—233.5228.511%1% / 15%FINAL—0-0 Q0 0.0
🏠 NBA-Knicks-0410 ELITE 75%▲100%NBA-Raptors-0410 STRONG 47%▼0%Fri 6:30p-5.5-13.5—219.5219.569%69% / 100%FINAL—0-0 Q0 0.0
🏠 NBA-Bulls-0410 WEAK 18%▲25%NBA-Magic-0410 WEAK 40%▲100%Fri 7:00p+15.5+6.5—243.5246.510%1% / 10%FINAL—0-0 Q0 0.0
🏠 NBA-Bucks-0410 AVERAGE 45%NBA-Nets-0410 WEAK 20%▼0%Fri 7:00p-9.5-15.5—218.5226.581%81% / 100%FINAL—0-0 Q0 0.0
🏠 NBA-Spurs-0410 ELITE 80%▲100%NBA-Mavs-0410 AVOID 18%▲50%Fri 7:00p-17.5-11.5—235.5233.593%84% / 100%FINAL—0-0 Q0 0.0
🏠 NBA-Nuggets-0410 STRONG 63%▲100%NBA-Thunder-0410 AVOID 0%Fri 8:00p-11.5-11.5—232.5233.583%57% / 100%FINAL—0-0 Q0 0.0
🏠 NBA-Rockets-0410 ELITE 71%▲80%NBA-Wolves-0410 AVERAGE 33%→33%Fri 8:30p-10.5-13.5—221.5225.582%1% / 87%FINAL—0-0 Q0 0.0
🏠 NBA-Jazz-0410 AVOID 34%NBA-Grizzlies-0410 WEAK 22%▼0%Fri 8:30p-3.5-14.5—248.5236.561%57% / 100%FINAL—0-0 Q0 0.0
🏠 NBA-Blazers-0410 AVERAGE 54%▲80%NBA-Clippers-0410 AVERAGE 30%Fri 9:00p-1.5-16.5—226.5228.553%44% / 100%FINAL—0-0 Q0 0.0
🏠 NBA-Kings-0410 AVOID 12%▲33%NBA-Warriors-0410 WEAK 40%Fri 9:00p+10.5+16.5—228.5228.520%4% / 100%FINAL—0-0 Q0 0.0
🏠 NBA-Lakers-0410 STRONG 41%NBA-Suns-0410 ELITE 84%▲100%Fri 9:30p+2.5+14.5—218.5236.544%44% / 100%FINAL—0-0 Q0 0.0
TimeTeamOppTipoffPregameEntry ¢Lo ¢BounceGradeVegas MoveOpen SpreadScoreSignal
2026-04-10 21:25:41NBA-Blazers-0410NBA-Clippers-0410Fri 9:00p53%¢52¢44+8%A+0.0-1.512-12 Q1 8:29BUY YES [A]
2026-04-10 21:25:27NBA-Blazers-0410NBA-Clippers-0410Fri 9:00p53%¢50¢44+6%B+0.0-1.512-12 Q1 8:29BUY YES [B]
2026-04-10 18:49:32NBA-Charlotte-0410NBA-Pistons-0410Fri 6:00p64%¢58¢51+7%B-1.0-5.541-46 Q2 8:02BUY YES [B]
2026-04-10 18:45:46NBA-Charlotte-0410NBA-Pistons-0410Fri 6:00p64%¢63¢51+12%A-1.0-5.535-36 Q2 10:46BUY YES [A]
2026-04-09 21:18:52NBA-Warriors-0409NBA-Lakers-0409Thu 9:00p64%¢42¢37+5%B+3.0-4.54-9 Q1 8:35BUY YES [B]
2026-04-09 20:45:37NBA-Knicks-0409NBA-Celtics-0409Thu 6:30p63%¢54¢46+8%A+3.0-4.5100-101 Q4 3:22BUY YES [A]
2026-04-09 20:45:24NBA-Knicks-0409NBA-Celtics-0409Thu 6:30p63%¢52¢46+6%B+3.0-4.5100-101 Q4 3:22BUY YES [B]
2026-04-09 20:29:08NBA-Knicks-0409NBA-Celtics-0409Thu 6:30p63%¢57¢48+9%A+1.0-4.583-83 Q4 11:20BUY YES [A]
2026-04-09 19:13:39NBA-Knicks-0409NBA-Celtics-0409Thu 6:30p63%¢58¢50+8%A+1.0-4.526-29 Q2 11:26BUY YES [A]
2026-04-09 19:05:41NBA-Knicks-0409NBA-Celtics-0409Thu 6:30p63%¢57¢50+7%B+1.0-4.517-21 Q1 1:58BUY YES [B]
2026-04-09 18:26:11NBA-Raptors-0409NBA-Heat-0409Thu 6:00p63%¢59¢51+8%A+1.0-4.513-16 Q1 5:54BUY YES [A]
2026-04-09 18:25:36NBA-Raptors-0409NBA-Heat-0409Thu 6:00p63%¢58¢51+7%B+1.0-4.513-16 Q1 5:54BUY YES [B]
2026-04-08 20:47:59NBA-Spurs-0408NBA-Blazers-0408Wed 8:30p60%¢60¢51+9%A+0.0-3.510-8 Q1 8:12BUY YES [A]
2026-04-08 20:46:47NBA-Spurs-0408NBA-Blazers-0408Wed 8:30p60%¢58¢51+7%B+0.0-3.57-8 Q1 8:43BUY YES [B]
2026-04-08 19:12:02NBA-Cavs-0408NBA-Hawks-0408Wed 6:00p53%¢42¢34+8%A-2.0-1.5HALF 60-67BUY YES [A]
2026-04-08 19:10:51NBA-Cavs-0408NBA-Hawks-0408Wed 6:00p53%¢40¢34+6%B-2.0-1.5HALF 60-67BUY YES [B]
2026-04-07 23:05:40NBA-Warriors-0407NBA-Kings-0407Tue 9:00p89%¢65¢59+6%A-3.0-13.595-97 Q4 6:36BUY YES [A]
2026-04-07 22:17:22NBA-Suns-0407NBA-Rockets-0407Tue 10:00p51%¢54¢45+9%A+0.0-1.58-5 Q1 9:18BUY YES [A]
2026-04-07 19:52:22NBA-Celtics-0407NBA-Charlotte-0407Tue 7:00p66%¢47¢42+5%B+1.0-4.530-39 Q2 8:12BUY YES [B]
2026-04-07 19:41:47NBA-Celtics-0407NBA-Charlotte-0407Tue 7:00p66%¢52¢42+10%A+1.0-4.523-31 Q2 11:13BUY YES [A]
2026-04-07 19:20:30NBA-Celtics-0407NBA-Charlotte-0407Tue 7:00p66%¢61¢56+5%B+0.0-4.513-16 Q1 6:17BUY YES [B]
2026-04-07 19:20:03NBA-Celtics-0407NBA-Charlotte-0407Tue 7:00p66%¢64¢56+8%A+0.0-4.513-13 Q1 6:41BUY YES [A]

📅 Yesterday's Review — Friday, April 10

10
NBA Wins
5
NBA Losses
3
Bounces
7
Buy Signals
0
Sell Signals

🏀 NBA

TeamPregameLowHighResultSignalsScore
Charlotte Hornets
vs Detroit Pistons		64c1c70cLOSSBUY 63c BOUNCEFINAL 100-118
Houston Rockets
vs Minnesota Timberwolves		82c1c87cLOSSBUY 81c BOUNCEFINAL 132-136
Portland Trail Blazers
vs LA Clippers		53c44c100cWINBUY 50c BOUNCEFINAL 116-97
Atlanta Hawks
vs Cleveland Cavaliers		76c71c100cWINBUY 77c FINAL 124-102
Boston Celtics
vs New Orleans Pelicans		93c92c100cWIN—FINAL 144-118
Chicago Bulls
vs Orlando Magic		10c1c13cLOSS—FINAL 103-127
Denver Nuggets
vs Oklahoma City Thunder		83c55c100cWINBUY 58c FINAL 127-107
Indiana Pacers
vs Philadelphia 76ers		11c1c18cLOSS—FINAL 94-105
Los Angeles Lakers
vs Phoenix Suns		44c44c100cWIN—FINAL 101-73
Milwaukee Bucks
vs Brooklyn Nets		81c81c100cWIN—FINAL 125-108
New York Knicks
vs Toronto Raptors		69c68c100cWIN—FINAL 112-95
Sacramento Kings
vs Golden State Warriors		20c4c100cWINBUY 25c FINAL 124-118
San Antonio Spurs
vs Dallas Mavericks		93c84c100cWINBUY 88c FINAL 139-120
Utah Jazz
vs Memphis Grizzlies		61c57c100cWIN—FINAL 147-101
Washington Wizards
vs Miami Heat		7c1c11cLOSS—FINAL 117-140

🎯 BillyBot Signals Deep Dive — Friday, April 10

TeamGradePregameEntryBounceScore at SignalResult
Charlotte Hornets
vs Detroit Pistons		A64c63c1235-36 Q2 10:46LOSS
Charlotte Hornets
vs Detroit Pistons		B64c58c741-46 Q2 8:02LOSS
Portland Trail Blazers
vs LA Clippers		B53c50c612-12 Q1 8:29WIN
Portland Trail Blazers
vs LA Clippers		A53c52c812-12 Q1 8:29WIN
# BILLYBOT'S NBA KALSHI RECAP ## 1. SIGNAL SCORECARD **Charlotte Hornets Grade A** | Entry: 63c | **LOSS** | Signal fired at 35-36 early Q2, but Detroit's offense exploded for 118 points - the 6c discount wasn't nearly enough cushion for Charlotte's defensive collapse. **Charlotte Hornets Grade B** | Entry: 58c | **LOSS** | Slightly better entry at 58c but same fundamental problem - Charlotte got blown out by 18 points, making both signals look foolish in hindsight. **Portland Trail Blazers Grade B** | Entry: 50c | **WIN** | Perfect timing at 12-12 tie in Q1, catching Portland before they dominated for a 19-point victory - the 3c discount proved prophetic. **Portland Trail Blazers Grade A** | Entry: 52c | **WIN** | Same game, worse entry price but still profitable - Portland's 116-97 demolition of the Clippers validated both signals despite the higher cost. **Record: 2 wins / 4 total (50%)** ## 2. VOLATILITY REPORT **Top 3 Most Volatile:** - **Sacramento Kings (96c swing)**: Pre-game 20c underdogs that hit 100c - classic road dog comeback story, predictable volatility given the low opening price - **Houston Rockets (86c swing)**: Collapsed from 82c pregame to 1c low despite being heavy favorites - this type of favorite meltdown creates maximum volatility and was likely unpredictable - **Charlotte Hornets (69c swing)**: Our signal target that crashed from 64c pregame to 1c - the defensive breakdown wasn't forecasted by our system **Bottom 2 Steadiest:** - **Boston Celtics (8c swing)**: 93c pregame favorites that cruised as expected - premium prices leave little room for movement when favorites handle business - **Chicago Bulls (12c swing)**: 10c underdogs that stayed buried - when heavy dogs get no early momentum, prices stay flat in their losing range ## 3. GRADE ANALYSIS **Grade A Performance: 1-1** - Mixed bag with Portland hitting and Charlotte missing badly **Grade B Performance: 1-1** - Identical 50% hit rate suggests no meaningful differentiation between grades last night The grading system showed no edge yesterday - both A and B grades hit at exactly 50%. This either indicates the system is properly calibrated or that last night's sample was too small to reveal true grade predictiveness. ## 4. WHAT BILLYBOT CAUGHT / WHAT IT MISSED **Caught Well:** Portland at 12-12 tie was perfect signal timing - both grades captured value before the Blazers pulled away decisively. **Missed Badly:** Charlotte's defensive fragility wasn't detected - firing signals on a team that would surrender 118 points shows a gap in defensive sustainability metrics. **Opportunity Missed:** Sacramento's 96c swing from 20c suggests the system should have flagged that massive underdog potential - a 20c pregame price often signals hidden value. ## 5. TREND WATCH **Defensive Blind Spot:** Charlotte signals failed because the system didn't account for defensive collapse risk - need to weight defensive consistency more heavily in signal generation. **Underdog Swing Identification:** Three biggest swings came from teams priced under 25c pregame (Sacramento 20c, Houston opponent at ~18c implied, Charlotte opponent at ~36c) - extreme underdogs create maximum volatility opportunities. **Signal Clustering Risk:** Firing both A and B grades on same game (both Charlotte and Portland) concentrates risk unnecessarily - consider limiting multiple signals per game to preserve bankroll diversification.

📌 Today's Analysis

• Charlotte Hornets opens at 64c as home favorite (-5.5 spread) — bounce watch if price drops to 47c or below
• Atlanta Hawks opens at 76c as home favorite (-7.5 spread) — bounce watch if price drops to 47c or below
• Boston Celtics opens at 93c as home favorite (-16.5 spread) — bounce watch if price drops to 47c or below
• New York Knicks opens at 69c as home favorite (-5.5 spread) — bounce watch if price drops to 47c or below
• Milwaukee Bucks opens at 81c as home favorite (-9.5 spread) — bounce watch if price drops to 47c or below
• San Antonio Spurs opens at 93c as home favorite (-17.5 spread) — bounce watch if price drops to 47c or below
• Denver Nuggets opens at 83c as home favorite (-11.5 spread) — bounce watch if price drops to 47c or below
• Houston Rockets opens at 82c as home favorite (-10.5 spread) — bounce watch if price drops to 47c or below
• Utah Jazz opens at 61c as home favorite (-3.5 spread) — bounce watch if price drops to 47c or below
• Portland Trail Blazers opens at 53c as home favorite (-1.5 spread) — bounce watch if price drops to 47c or below

📋 Signal Framework

SignalTriggerAction
🟢 BUY WARNINGHome favorite drops to 47c or below mid-gameConsider entry — your call
🔔 SELL WARNINGPrice recovers to 70c after entryConsider exit — your call
🚫 No BUY SignalQ4 with less than 8 minutes remainingToo late to enter
⚠️ Limit WarnPosition drops below 50c after entryAssess hold vs cut

📊 Morning Brief — 2026-04-11

**TODAY'S PREVIEW:** The 2026 NBA season average home favorite win rate is 55% -- teams priced above 55c are market favorites, below 55c are undervalued. **TIER 1 HOME FAVORITES:** Boston Celtics 93c vs New Orleans Pelicans (6:30p, -16.5) -- priced 38c above fair value, heavy chalk unlikely to bounce below 85c. San Antonio Spurs 93c vs Dallas Mavericks (7:00p, -17.5) -- also 38c above fair value, massive spread suggests blowout expectation with minimal bounce potential. Denver Nuggets 83c vs Oklahoma City Thunder (8:00p, -11.5) -- 28c above fair value but Thunder can compete, moderate bounce candidate if OKC shows early life. Houston Rockets 82c vs Minnesota Timberwolves (8:30p, -10.5) -- 27c above fair value, coming off yesterday's home loss creates potential fatigue/letdown spot. Milwaukee Bucks 81c vs Brooklyn Nets (7:00p, -9.5) -- 26c above fair value, Nets are capable of early runs that could create bounce opportunities. Atlanta Hawks 76c vs Cleveland Cavaliers (6:00p, -7.5) -- 21c above fair value, Cavs have upset potential in tight spread game. New York Knicks 69c vs Toronto Raptors (6:30p, -5.5) -- 14c above fair value, pick'em game where Raptors could grab early lead. Charlotte Hornets 64c vs Detroit Pistons (6:00p, -5.5) -- 9c above fair value, tightest spread of heavy favorites makes this prime bounce territory. Utah Jazz 61c vs Memphis Grizzlies (8:30p, -3.5) -- 6c above fair value, essentially a coin flip where Grizzlies could easily lead early. Portland Trail Blazers 53c vs LA Clippers (9:00p, -1.5) -- 2c below fair value, Clippers favored by Vegas creates natural bounce setup. **TIER 2 NEAR-EVEN:** Los Angeles Lakers 44c vs Phoenix Suns (9:30p, +2.5) -- near-even with Suns road favorite, watch for 30c dip if Suns control early. **HOME DOGS (NO-PLAY):** Washington Wizards 7c, Indiana Pacers 11c, Chicago Bulls 10c, Sacramento Kings 20c -- all home dogs, outside our framework. **TONIGHT'S PLAY PRIORITY:** 1. Portland Trail Blazers (53c) -- only undervalued home team, Clippers road chalk creates natural fade setup, trigger 47c 2. Charlotte Hornets (64c) -- closest to fair value among favorites, tight spread against improving Pistons, trigger 47c 3. Utah Jazz (61c) -- minimal premium over fair, Grizzlies have bounce-back capability, trigger 47c 4. New York Knicks (69c) -- moderate overvalue, Raptors desperate for road wins, trigger 47c 5. Atlanta Hawks (76c) -- Cavs can compete, reasonable bounce candidate, trigger 47c 6. Milwaukee Bucks (81c) -- Nets capable of early runs, moderate bounce potential, trigger 47c 7. Houston Rockets (82c) -- fatigue spot after yesterday's loss, trigger 47c 8. Los Angeles Lakers (44c) -- Tier 2 longshot if Suns dominate early, trigger 30c **SITTING BUYS:** Portland Trail Blazers | Buy at 47c | Best undervalued setup tonight Charlotte Hornets | Buy at 46c | Tightest spread among heavy chalk creates bounce opportunity Utah Jazz | Buy at 45c | Near fair value with capable opponent New York Knicks | Buy at 44c | Moderate overvalue in pick'em spot Atlanta Hawks | Buy at 43c | Cavs upset potential in reasonable spread Milwaukee Bucks | Buy at 42c | Nets can create early pressure Houston Rockets | Buy at 41c | Potential fatigue letdown after yesterday Denver Nuggets | Buy at 40c | OKC quality opponent despite heavy line San Antonio Spurs | Buy at 20c | Massive chalk, catastrophe insurance only Boston Celtics | Buy at 18c | Extreme overvalue, floor protection only Los Angeles Lakers | Buy at 30c | Tier 2 trigger if Suns control Miami Heat | Buy at 15c | Home dog protocol, no-play territory Philadelphia 76ers | Buy at 15c | Home dog protocol, no-play territory Orlando Magic | Buy at 15c | Home dog protocol, no-play territory Golden State Warriors | Buy at 15c | Home dog protocol, no-play territory **YESTERDAY'S REVIEW:** Charlotte 64c/1c/LOSS - Bounce setup fired, crashed to floor. Washington 7c/1c/LOSS - Home dog as expected. Atlanta 76c/71c/WIN - BUY fired at 77c, delivered. Boston 93c/92c/WIN - Heavy chalk held form. Indiana 11c/1c/LOSS - Home dog crashed. New York 69c/68c/WIN - Minimal movement, covered. Chicago 10c/1c/LOSS - Home dog collapsed. Milwaukee 81c/81c/WIN - No dip opportunity. San Antonio 93c/84c/WIN - BUY fired at 88c on dip. Denver 83c/55c/WIN - Major dip, BUY fired at 58c. Houston 82c/1c/LOSS - Bounce setup crashed completely. Utah 61c/57c/WIN - Minimal dip, covered spread. Portland 53c/44c/WIN - Bounce setup delivered, BUY fired at 50c. Sacramento 20c/4c/WIN - Dog upset, BUY fired at 25c. Lakers 44c/44c/WIN - Tier 2 no dip, dominated.
Kalshi: 03:50:17  ·  Odds: 03:21:16